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The Ultimate Parlay: DraftKings ($DKNG)
Here on a Sunday night to give you autists some time to cross-check my info, start your RH instant deposit, and let your wife's bf know you're coming back with a vengeance. Here's an in-depth analysis on DraftKings and how to maximize profits over the foreseeable future to squeeze this for every tendie we can. Now that many states face revenue shortfalls due to the coronavirus pandemic and wider budget deficits, there needs to be a push to fill that gap and nothing is better positioned than sports betting. As you all know, $DKNG came to market through a SPAC merging with Diamond Eagle back in April, at the worst of the pandemic when live sports were dead and there was more uncertainty than ever for what was to come. Jason Robins, Draft Kings CEO, has balls of steel and knew that they needed to get to market quickly for a sports betting run-up the likes of which we've never seen. Sports are now on their way back, with a huge amount of positive catalysts coming up in the next few months to skyrocket this stock to the moon and beyond.
I want to clarify that a large amount of my conviction from this play comes from the incredible management team leading the company. CEO Jason Robins is a stand-up guy and has led the company through a huge amount of scrutiny since its founding in 2012. He comes from a data analytics background which could not be a better fit for the sports betting business. He prioritizes the high speed data that fuels the DraftKings platform as its most valuable asset and speaks often on the commitment his team has to ethical values and encouraging a trustworthy environment for its users to gamble their paychecks on the DraftKings platform. I've linked a great interview to get to know the CEO and give further insight into DraftKing's plans moving forward below and highly recommend anyone going in on this play give it a quick watch. Jason is optimistic about the future of state's legalizing mobile sports betting moving forward and says they will continue to invest boatloads of money into customer acquisition costs through TV ads and billboards on a state-by-state basis. Link: https://youtu.be/2OVFB9piEC0 Any of you who have come across DraftKings commercials, YouTube ads, billboards, know that their marketing is on point. This is a great play because DraftKing's expansion has occurred thus far on a state-by-state basis. This means that there's a large part of the nation (actually the majority) that is still ignorant to the sports betting wave that is coming in 2021. DraftKings is positioned extremely well to lead the way into the ~25 states still waiting to pass the bill.
The fact that the top 4 states in the country still have not legalized online sports betting presents a HUGE opportunity to ride this wave with little downside risk. Sports have already gone through the worst-case scenario during COVID shutdowns and survived—now we’ve got a great amount of positive catalysts coming up (NBA season, March madness, Super Bowl, etc.) that the general population is begging for some action on, paired with more money in their pocket from significantly less entertainment costs since the pandemic started. The Wuhan Virus gave DraftKings a shot in the arm to streamline its way into most (if not all) of the remaining state's ballots during Q1 and Q2 due to the huge cut in tax revenues that the lockdowns caused across the country. Governor Cuomo of New York released a statement last week stating he is now considering the passing of mobile sports betting in order to raise the state's tax revenue during a time where Congress completely skipped them over in terms of providing aid through the stimmy. New York is a huge catalyst moving forward. In my opinion, this is a make or break for how things look for DraftKings moving forward, and will largely influence how other states react. Mobile sports betting scares states as it is new and so accessible, but if you do research into the Powerball and other loterry companies, it just took a push in the right direction for states to realize how much money they are leaving on the table by not participating in these emerging markets. Sports betting has already benefited the 9 states which passed the bill (NJ leading the way) and has NY as well as every other governor, feeling major FOMO. Current states where online (mobile) sports betting laws have passed:
Legislation aside, the other huge catalyst is DraftKing's unique approach to owning its own data and proprietary tech stack. I believe that this will be where DKNG separates itself from the competition that is rushing to this space and will give it the upper hand in acquiring, and retaining, a large percentage of new users across opening states. From investor presentation:"Upon close of the business combination, DraftKings will become the only vertically-integrated pure-play sports betting and online gaming company based in the United States. Through the business combination, DraftKings expects to realize synergies by transitioning its risk and trading sports betting platform to SBTech’s, instead of relying on a third-party platform. In addition to reducing costs, DraftKings will control its backend system and product roadmap, differentiating the company from other U.S. operators and giving it the ability to tailor its sports betting product to U.S. sports and users." "SBTech is a global leader in omni-channel sports betting and gaming, with more than 1,200 employees in 10 offices worldwide. Since 2007, the group has developed the industry’s most powerful online sports betting and casino platform, serving licensees in more than 15 regulated territories. SBTech’s clients include many of the world’s premier betting and gaming operators, state lotteries, land-based casinos, horse racing companies, and iGaming start-ups. The group supplies highly flexible betting and gaming solutions to clients looking for exceptional configurability and the quickest route to market, complemented by proven business intelligence and reporting capabilities. The SBTech offering includes its seamless sportsbook, Chameleon360 iGaming platform, managed services, on-property sportsbook and omni-channel solutions that provide players with constant access to sports and casino products across all online, mobile and retail channels. Supported by unrivaled expertise in trading and risk management, acquisition and CRM, and the highest standards of regulatory compliance, SBTech’s partners consistently achieve rapid growth, enhanced brand loyalty and record revenues." DraftKings prioritized OWNING their own backend technology via this merger with SBTech, making them the first, and only company in this space to own their risk and trading platform. This gives DraftKings a huge edge to the rest of the market. It forked up the cash to keep everything in house not only to provide a better customer experience, but also to widen the moat against competitors as new states come onboard. The key here is to clarify that DraftKings and SBTech combined to be the only player in the market with 100% vertical integration and control of their own backend. Jason Robins and the rest of the management team are placing their efforts on having the best technology and the best product and really going all in on owning the U.S. landscape opening up, with as little need for cross-platform interaction as possible. This acquisition of SBTech was a complete game changer because it allowed them to be independent from paying revenue share to a third-party for betting lines and risk management services. Clarification: no other sports betting/fantasy sports/casino company currently has 100% vertical integration on the level that DraftKings has established.
This is where the market is missing the mark. Take the time to read over analyst reports, news articles, and interviews and you'll quickly notice 99% of the general market is completely glazing over DraftKing's iGaming sector. This industry has been a CA$H COW in Europe for awhile now, and is only getting started in the United States. Out of the companies that occupy this space, DraftKings is the only one to create one synergistic platform for Fantasy sports/Sportsbook/iGaming. This will be a huge value proposition that will ultimately rocket DraftKings to the top of the gaming market and solidify it as THE gaming powerhouse moving forward. The infrastructure driving DraftKing's products and Tech (all in one platform) Anyone that's watched the run of Skillz and the hype pushing PaySafe, knows how much anticipation there is for iGaming to become the new norm in the world of gambling. DraftKings has emerged as the market leader in each state they've launched in, and continue to gain more and more market share. Once new users get introduced to their platform, the cross-selling opportunity is limitless and creates an extremely sticky customer acquisition cycle. Competitors like Penn and MGM are dinosaurs in this space and have been playing catch-up to DraftKings since 2012. The new age of gamblers don't want to drive to a physical casino location or buy a home desktop to gamble. Everything will be mobile and run in real-time. DraftKings has been building an incredible live-sports ecosystem (first to market) and innovates the possibilities of what you can bet on a daily basis. Just download the app for yourself and do some exploring. I believe this is going to boom in the TikTok/millennial crowd as more states start to hop onboard.
Pulled from the investor presentation, $DKNG has smashed every one of their 2020 assumptions listed below. For any stats guys out there, I would love to see some models at how much of this market is still up for grabs. DraftKings has positioned themselves to be at the head of this movement, and I believe that 2021 will be the year we really see them take off into triple digits share prices. The catalysts are there, and the market is ripe for the taking. Their projections are extremely conservative and management lets the numbers do the talking. In my opinion, this is a bet on the management putting the dots together to EXECUTE as state legislation starts to go their way, once NY happens this shift will occur rapidly. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1772757/000110465920032214/tm2012476d1_425.htm The management is incredible and truly displays a vision for wanting to prop up shareholder value in the long-term through valuable data, a fully integrated platform, and aggressive customer acquisition to take control of this market as states realize the economic deficits which they are facing going into a new year. This along with the unprecedented hype that is going to be involved with sports events this year, will skyrocket DraftKings to new heights. This is not a bet on sports betting alone, it is a play on a data-heavy and analytically driven behemoth, with strategic partnerships (league, team, and celebrity partnerships) and one of the most aggressive marketing strategies I have ever laid eyes on. The stock soared earlier this years upon news of the Michael Jordan partnership (https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/02/investing/draftkings-michael-jordan-deal/index.html) and there is many, many more big moves in the pipeline.
Long-term I am extremely bullish on people wanting risk to make up a daily part of their lives. The psychology of sports betting resembles that of the lottery and is becoming a must-have for people to have the choice to place bets from the convenience of their mobile phones. We are moving into a future where if risk and leverage are not involved, people will have little interest in dedicating their time to things. This shift can be seen with the boom in retail options trading (shoutout wsb gang) and will have a similar effect in sports, iGaming, and random prop bets/surveys that Draft Kings is innovating heavily in. This is not to mention the infrastructure that DKNG is continuing to build out to rival that of Europe in terms of live sports betting (which makes up three quarters of revenue for online sports books in the UK) and expanding their horizons to lesser betted on sports such as tennis, golf, soccer, etc. If you've gotten this far, congrats you're just a few steps away from striking gold. Any feedback, comments, rebuttals, bear scenarios, etc. please comment. Good luck.
DraftKings has state legislation action coming, incredible management, is data-driven, is vertically integrated/owns its tech stack, has exposure to the full range of new world gaming (Fantasy/Sportsbook/iGaming), and is ahead of its competition forming league, team, and celebrity partnerships. $70c 1/21/22 $90c 1/20/23
My 1 Year Anniversary of Full Time Day Trading. 3 Years In The Business. What I Wish I Could Tell Myself Years Ago.
This industry has a lack of transparency so I'm more than happy to say I will provide lots of that throughout this post with screenshots. There are LOTS of imgur links to back what I say so it's not just words on a post expecting you to just believe what I'm typing. This post I suppose is "Part 2" my post back in April, "After 2 years of Daytrading. 7 months full time. Here's my advice". I'm doing this to update everyone who came/comes across this in the future. Yes, it is possible. No, it won't be easy. You will pay homage to the rite of passage into this career. I'll also provide some examples of styles of trading so for the newer aspiring traders, there will be some things I rarely see discussed on forums. So here's to 1 year of Full Time Day Trading TL;DR - You'll become desensitized to trading. Stubborn to other strategies (There are biggebaddemore lucrative strategies. Don't chase them. Why fix what's not broken? I know what works for me and I'm content with it. No strategy is better than another. It's a personal choice. ). Losing individual trades won't faze you, they're inevitable. Profiting certainly feels better. After a while, you won't be as enthralled to trade every morning, it'll become just another part of your day). Trading is just managing your money through a statistic and the medium to execute it is trading on your platform. Think: "If. Then. Because". Your trading plan should be that black and white. Ask "Why" for everything you do and use. If you can't answer it with documented results, drop it. I get a bunch of messages all the time from people asking - . Out of those who follow me and chat me seeking further tips through my previous posts. I'll be answering the FAQ's and addressing things I see frequently in this sub as far as trading axioms Disclaimer: I won't sugarcoat anything. I'll share my experiences and add pieces of advice I'd give to those who are currently experiencing the same thing becoming a full time day trader and what day to day life is like, the occasional distress, (DRAWDOWNS). Some of you follow my Twitter for the past few months where I post my daily watchlists with a snippet that reveals my DayTradingBuyingPower. I do this not to brag but to demonstrate that the account does yield growth, I pay myself, and there are days where the balance does not move because there was no edge. I also do this since nobody else shows their account performance. (Yes. You, Mr. YouTube gurus and wannabe gurus). We do this for income, the numbers on our accounts are real. Treat it as such. Get your initial capital out of your account THEN try to "Scale your account" with your profits AKA The Market's Money. I'll go over: •FAQ's that I get in my inbox (I'm still welcome to further questions if I don't answer here) •Decision Fatigue (You will experience this) •The previous year (2019-2020) of ups and downs •How to use my watchlists that I post on Twitter in the morning to your advantage •The pivotal moment that changed my trading career (NFLX 10-17-19) •The road to becoming a full time trader. (It won't be fun unless you're handed the money) •You'll have a better grasp of my strategy (Between ProTip 4 and 5. ProTip 8.) There are 10 "ProTips" throughout the post that I wish I could tell myself years back and I'll periodically throw them in here as the post goes on. I make posts long in order to segregate those serious about this business and those who will just become another statistic in the failure rate of this business. At the end of this post, I'll go over the frequent questions I receive such as: (Answers to FAQ at bottom of post.)
"How do you prepare for a trading day?"
"What would you go back to tell yourself?"
"Books?" (The most abused question, but I get it. I could start a public library with just trading books I bought over the years)
"What is your background?"
"What is a normal day for you?"
"How did you discover your strategy?"
"What did you do/How did you get started?"
"What is your % return?" (Not a fun question since a trading account is not an index or investment account. Intraday traders do not measure performance in %. Most are measured in "R".)
"Is enough to start trading?"
"Why do you need so many monitors"? (This one is rarely asked but I do see it discussed on platforms and people trading on mobile phones love giving flack to anybody who trades on multiple monitors. Hint: Everyone's different. Whatever works for the individual. There are no rules in trading. The only rule is that it works.)
Background: I heard about daytrading during the 2008 crash while in high school. We all want to make more while working less. I entertained day trading from time to time but always realized I never had enough money. Horrible mindset because I could have still researched WHILE saving money to put into my trading business. 2015 -I opened my first trading account with Scottrade while in the Marines. Apparently if you have a net worth of over $1,000,000 you can get out early (Biggest rumor ever). I frivolously bought crap penny stocks. In short - I was a hair away from gambling. What made it NOT gambling was the fact that at least I owned something tangible (Securities of a company) and anything can happen. Buy low sell high was my strategy. Didn't work obviously. No idea what I was doing. I'd buy and hold hoping to wake up to the stock price being way higher and it never happened. •ProTip #1 : If you hold a trade overnight... It is not daytrading. Stop turning into an investor because you can't admit a minor defeat. 2017 - I started taking this business seriously while working in the oilfield as a Logistics Planner (If you're wondering what company since I am asked this from time to time, Google: "World's largest oilfield services company"). No kids, girlfriend/wife or financial obligations. I worked 10AM - 7PM CST and would trade the open from home for roughly 1 hour. Later I was offered to be a Data Analyst... Only downside was... I couldn't trade since I had to be at work now at 8AM CST during the market open. In the moment of signing the offer letter, I was bummed thinking, "No more trading," That wasn't the case though. You can still build your trading business with a 9-5 and while never making one trade. The data is there. •ProTip #2 :We all see the same data. It's there forever. Many strategies show their edge both live and in hindsight the same. (Especially if you trade patterns). You CAN build your business as a trader without even taking a trade. You CAN build your strategy while working a 9-5. Just because you're not trading, does not mean you can't build your business through research. You won't know how you'll react to the losses but at least you can diagnose the raw data with a large enough sample size for assurance and confidence. If you have a 9-5 and want to go fulltime into this business. Stay for a bit, save, live so far beneath your means that it is almost miserable, (depending on your expenses, area you live, family etc) and get a few hundred sample sizes of your strategy! And for your PTO/days off... trade the open. I sacrificed my vacation days to trade. After 2 years in corporate America, eating cheap food, never going out, saving relentlessly, I made the decision to just do it and resigned. I went straight into the ring of fire known as trading. That was on: September 23rd, 2019 ""(Sound familiar?) When you hear these types of comments.. your response should be: "Nobody put the time I put into this. The 90%+ who fail, don't have it all written out, computerized backtests, manual backtests, statistics, SOP manuals, JUST like the job I have which is a business, I'm just another cog in their wheel. I'll just be wearing all the hats in my trading business. Instead of Oil&Gas, it's just for trading". One thing I see here a lot is people saying to trade X amount of months/years or make X. •ProTip #3 -Think in man hours, not calendar. Example: Trader A puts in 1 hour of study/work/research everyday for 1 year. (365 Hours) Trader B puts in 12 hours of work every day for 4 months. (~1,450 Hours) Trader A lives in a major city while Trader B lives in the middle of nowhere. (Think cost of living) 2 totally different living expenses and 2 different calibers of dedication. I'd put my money on Trader B because he put in more man hours. (~1,000 more hours on the clock to be more exact). ProTip #4 - Have a cushion in your account AND your personal bank account. Having a strategy is great but you won't know entirely if you can fulfill and execute your plan until you experience the ups and downs both short and long term. A strategy is constant over long periods of time... there will be days, weeks, and perhaps a month here and there where you aren't making much money. We hear all the time, "Trade like a casino". Casinos don't make money day after day but the odds are in there favor over the long haul. Month 1 of full time trading was great: Immediately after going full time, the first month (September 2019 to October 2019), I did super well. Business as usual. No stress. Everything going as planned. No turbulence. At least not like I had ever experienced... The 2 prerequisites I had before resigning was:
Show consistency in returns. Consistent Sharpe Ratio.
Make a 4 figure trade (I achieved this while short 100 shares on ROKU September 20th, 2019 and even made a victory post if you scroll down my profile's posts.)
First life-changing trading lesson learned as a full time trader: That money printing spree ended on NFLX October 17th, 2019. Less than 1 month of being a full time trader. Deviating and going against my plan I actually made $500 in a matter of 4 minutes. If you follow my watchlists on Twitter, I always trade with the direction of the gap. If I notate, "Long Watches" that means I will only trade it IF (and only IF) I see a long biased pattern. Likewise I will only be looking to short my "Short Watches". Plenty of times I'll call out a ticker and it immediately goes the other way. No harm no foul because there was no long biased pattern to confirm my thesis. On 10-17-2019, I went against my plan and it worked.. NFLX gapped up to resistance and I went short when it tanked off of a short pattern.(This is known as fading). The market gave me a free lunch and then some. So now I'm walking on air in my mind: "I'm an absolute unit" "I'll do it again and clear another $500 to make it a 4 figure day before 9:30AM Central" "Should have quit my job way earlier being this good." Within 30 minutes of the open. I gave all $500 back. Yes I wanted to trade it back. Never have I had the desire to smash anything but I do understand those who do! Yes I stood there and felt like each passing second was wasted opportunity. The next 24 hours were long! ProTip #5:It's circumstances like that that help you in the long run. FunFact: I never once deviated from my plan since. Not ever again. "I could have paid for my groceries and electric for the month after 4 minutes of trading if I just took the free pass the market gave me" I felt dumb but in hindsight, I'm glad at what happened. It was this exact instance that married me to my strategy/business plan. The next day and the 7 trading days following. I didn't make 1 profiting trade. My longest ever drawdown - 11 straight trades. While researching I found out this was Decision Fatigue (I'll go over this shortly below) Put yourself in that situation... You have bills and your income is strictly trading. I don't care how much a robot you think you are or how strongly you believe in probabilities, when you were in an office less than a month ago making almost 6 figures sitting in an air conditioned office knowing direct deposit is on its way every other Friday no matter how well or poorly you performed at work.. Now you're in the hot seat. Its a bottomless feeling. Now all of your friends and families words are ringing in your head. But just like a boxing match.. you gotta take a hit to get a hit. Win some, lose some, shake hands and get back to normal life. Water under the bridge. Mind you: •No guaranteed direct deposit every 2 weeks. •No more medical/dental insurance. •401K retirement is no longer being matched. 11 trades is nothing. You only require ~5.5 trades at 2:1RRR to make it back OR 3.5 trades at 3:1RRR. It's nothing especially in your research because you can easily just scroll a little more and see, "Oh that's just a drawdown. No big deal". How will you react in real time? Will you buckle or choke? But the thing is, I was skipping trades out of fear and JUST so happened to be picking all of the unsuccessful ones. (Decision Fatigue) Think about those 2 weeks of being in a drawdown. Half of the month. You're not just stagnant, your account is bleeding slowly but surely. Next time you're looking at your spreadsheet/backtest/predictive model/research.. try to put yourself in those days of drawdown. It's not just 11 boxes of red with "-1R" or "Loss" in them. The screenshot above on Imgur is just a recent example. Think about your daily routine, going to the gym, hanging with friends, grocery shopping, cooking, going to bed, waking up, doing a routine, then losing again.. and again.. and again. Try to think of life during those 300+ hours (Weekends too) of, "I haven't made money. I've lost money. And I still have bills. After paying them, I'll be closer to my set Risk of Ruin". Here's a lesson you won't learn before going fulltime but I'll do my best to emphasize it here: Pick a strategy. And stick with it. It can literally be anything. Don't spread yourself thin watching 20+ tickers and be a jack of all patterns/tickers. Be a master of 1 pattern and master of 1 circumstance. There's this real thing called "Decision Fatigue" which explains exactly why what happened.. happened. The article explains that the 2 outcomes of this mental strain known as "Decision Fatigue" is:
Sound familiar? Does it kind of make sense now? As a new trader you have YouTube, Facebook, StockTwits, Twitter, "gurus", books recommended on Amazon, all throwing their ideas/strategies around, the market has opportunities littered all over.. Decision Fatigue is inevitable for the unprepared. Decision Fatigue happens in every profession. If you mess up at your 9-5, its just a blunder, your paycheck will remain the same. Just a slap on the wrist and move on. With trading, you make a mistake.. it's less food on your table, lights don't stay on, and/or water isn't running. That pressure adds up. No wonder so many fail... The signs of Decision Fatigue: •Procrastination. •Impulsivity. •Avoidance. •Indecision. When you find what clicks with you AND its either statistically or performance proven, have the courage to risk a healthy sum of your capital into it. There are strategies/patterns/styles of trading littered all over the internet: Very broad example: "IFcircumstance happensTHEN"Execution". Stoploss is XYZ. Target is XYZ.BECAUSEover a series of Y trades, I will make $X,XXX.xx". ProTip #6 :Strategies are all over the internet. It's your account/money, backtest it. People share their strategies here all the time and although I don't agree with them because I know what works for me, it's something to chew off of for you newer traders. YouTube is a harbor with people who give just enough info to figure their style out.You will lose trades. Sit for some screen-time and pay homage to the edge that you discover. All in due time. Insert key metrics and find correlations. This is how you create checks and balances to create/formulate a black and white trading plan. When I first started doing this, my spreadsheet(s) had so many columns it was annoying and would kill my desire to continue working. You'll find things that are imperative and some that are unimportant. For a lack of more colorful terms: "Throw stuff at the wall and see what sticks"Trim the fat. Rinse and repeat.
Here's some things I used to remind myself of and perhaps it'll ring some bells for you:
•Surrender your capital to your edge. If you truly accept the risk and trust your proven edge, losses don't feel like anything nor do profits. Although we're not here to put on losing trades and yes it does feel nice to profit. I still from time to time will excited when I hit target after a series of multiple profiting trades depending on my mood. •If you're nervous or your heart starts beating quicker when you hear the sound effect of a trade getting entered/filled. Be honest with yourself and ask yourself if you're truly accepting the risk. •Things you can't take to the bank:
Number of trades.
"This one great trade that I hit target in less than 30 seconds and I got filled better than expected"
All of these are integral metrics. But you're trading to make money. It's up or down, green or red, profit or loss, TRUE or FALSE. So with that said, find what works flawlessly and is easy to follow. Checks and Balances. Then allocate a good sum of risk into it. I read it here all the time, "Don't risk too much" and that's great and true for new traders. But don't sell yourself short. Push yourself over the edge and admit that you know your stuff. Think of Trader A and Trader B. If you've put the time in.. don't sell yourself short. You've built enough courage to learn a business so many fail at. This business has such a negative connotation. But remember that not everybody can handle meritocracies and that's exactly what the market is. Don't try to be the best, just work harder than everyone else and the output of your input will be relative. ProTip #7:YouTube trading ads from gurus... they're subconsciously making you think you're a novice trader.It's in their marketing. They study marketing psychology. The EASIEST things to sell:
People that are desperate for those things are the most vulnerable and these "Traders" marketers are fantastic at portraying all 3 of those things at once. •ProTip #8 (Broken record alert) :Write a business plan. Your strategy shouldn't take longer than 4 sentences to explain to another trader. When you have a plan that's proven through a statistic and WAIT for it to happen, you feel100Xbetter taking the trade. You don't even care too much when it results in a loss. Because that was your plan, you accept it much better, and you know it was just an expense for a winning trade. Want my strategy? "I scan for stocks with a market cap of over 250M, 10k shares premarket, gapping to support or resistance, priced over $10, and I look for a pattern biased to the direction of the overnight gap. It isn't rocket science. Check my Twitter, look at the dates I posted, and you'll notice the gist. Yes this is an edge but not the entire edge. How fast can you sift through 15 time frames? How long does it take you to fill out your order ticket? Your Fibonacci time extensions with 5 EMA's and Bollinger Bands aren't helping you. They're lagging. If they work for you, great. In my experience, they hindered my visibility. Pro Tip #9: Yes statistics are highly applicable to trading. Patternsdowork. All patterns do is tell you WHEN to enteexit, and how many shares. Humans will never think differently of money. Be the frontrunner of the market's emotions. Nobody remembers the indecisive leader. Risk taking is a commonality amongst leaders. Trading requires courage and it's O.K. to show a bit of confidence as long as you also have the humility to admit when you're in a bad trade.(Notice how I didn't put, "wrong". You're only "wrong" when you deviate from a proven strategy.) ProTip #10:Risk management is 24/7. I've never heard anyone mention this but think about it a little bit. Having financial obligations can become stressful regardless of how you earn your income but its far more stressful while running a business. Not just any business, but a business where you can go to work on your A-game, do every single last thing right, trade without emotion etc... and still walk away with less money than what you came to work with. Meanwhile somebody who JUST started trading made a 4 figure profit not knowing what the heck the difference betweenETB, HTB, or NTB. Think of it like this, a JV high school baseball player can hit a homerun off of an MLB pitcher once.. but how will he fare at the end of the season? Traders don't predict stock prices, traders predict the outcome over hundreds of trades. People chat me asking what TO do rather than what NOT to do. You don't learn labor intensive jobs or how to fly a plane by what to do.. you learn what NOT to do to stay alive. That's all I have. Once you have a trading plan underway and you're executing it, you don't have much time when your hobbies are cheap but I still do respond to chats/messages. I do get asked from a previous post when I'll build a website and to answer that: I'm learning how to build a site on rainy days. Can't put a definitive date on it. I will say that its coming, if you don't give up on this business in the next year or so, you'll see it. What I plan on putting on there:
Position size Calculators
Dictionary with examples
I just don't want some generic WordPress site. I want my website to be stellar and a great resource for aspiring traders. Something I didn't have learning this business. I want it to be something I'd consider a staple in a trader's resources. Perhaps one day it will be referenced on this sub frequently. FAQ:
"How do you prepare for a trading day?" I get behind the computer about 20 minutes before the bell. Reason being: "If you study long. You'll study wrong". If the chart isn't grabbing my attention and gets me excited, then I flick to the next ticker. I don't even know the companies I trade half the time nor do I care about a news report some journalist wrote. Also there is no magic news outlet that lets you know about "Major events that affect stock prices". If there was, I wouldn't be here because we're all subscribed to the same edge nor would I be trading my style.
"What would you go back to tell yourself?" Get more data. Save a little more, your hairline and sleep schedule will thank you. Take only perfect trades and don't feel forced to trade. There will be days you don't touch an order ticket. And days where you are busy and have tunnel vision. Next thing you know its time to shut it down for the day.
"Books?" - I try to humble myself when answering this but off the cuff, they're all mediocre. Andrew Aziz's was ok, definitely get it, it's only a few bucks on Kindle. Just don't expect it to give you strategies BUT it will give you ideas. If you're brand new, it is good as it will teach you the common vernacular of a day trader. Mark Douglas was interesting but his YouTube seminar recordings are much better. No book, Facebook group, YouTube channel is going to be the end all be all perfect strategy. Expect losses. Don't be a one hitter quitter after suffering a few tiny losses/paper cuts. Stick to it. Most books will help you familiarize yourself with the common vocabulary amongst traders and will hint ideas. It's your job to formulate the strategy and template for research.
"What is your background?" I was a logistics planner for a major oilfield services company. Later I then became a data/buyer analyst so yes, data analytics/research was a 2nd language for me entering trading. I did have that upper hand and did shave off months if not years for me.
"What is a normal day for you?" I'm always done trading after 10:30AM Central. I will hold onto a trade until right before the bell if it hasn't hit either target or StopLoss by the time I leave the house but it is absolutely closed in entirety by 2:55PM Central. After I trade, I enjoy the day. No I'm not riding around in my Lambos posting IG/Snapchat (I have neither) stories of my profits with my private jet waiting on a runway trying to sell an $7 eBook or a $100 membership (HINT HINT). I grill/cook, read, workout, ride my motorcycle, attack my other sources of income (small businesses I'm building), hit the driving range, shoot guns, etc. I live in Texas. Life is cheap and fun here.
"How did you discover your strategy?" I bought TradeIdeas premium, went through all of their computerized backtesting patterns, tested them. Then did what I mentioned earlier... Tried to find correlations in metrics. It distilled the trades to a strict criteria and here I am. I post on average 4-5 tickers on my watchlist. 7 max. I do not like spreading my attention thin across multiple tickers. I do not recommend buying TradeIdeas, it does have lots of bugs.
"What did you do/How did you get started?" Was a data analyst, was good at research and applied it to trading. My incentive was, "I could have made more money trading rather than sitting in 2+ hours of roundtrip traffic and 9 hours in an office. The data is there. Everybody sees the same charts all over the world. There are ways to make this possible"
"What is your % return?"(Not a fun question since a trading account is not an index or investment account. Intraday traders do not measure performance in %) I trade to make money AND pay myself, so my equity curve will look like a small loss or small gain after I pay myself. % return? I measure my account's performance in Sharpe Ratio and Risk Units. My Sharpe Ratio is ~1.85. While I yield roughly .8 - 1 R per trading day. Some weeks I make 10R. Some weeks I lose 2R. Yeah one week I might make $2,500. But the next week I might lose $300. The following week my strategy will yield $0 and the last week I might make $1,000. Some weeks suck. Some weeks are great. But overall. Just shy of 1R per trading day. Some days I'm super busy taking trade after trade. Some days I'll shut it down after 5 minutes without even filling out an order ticket. Some days I won't even see the open because there is no edge for me.. Keywords... "For me".
"Is enough to start trading?" Depends on where you live. Are you restricted to PDT? If not then how much are you obligated to expenses? I live in Texas. Things are cheap here. If you live in NYC or The Bay Area your expenses will be astronomical compared to mine. A $30,000 account is totally doable for a single Texan with low monthly expenses. Now if you're in California or New York? I'm sure you'll fall below 25k if you have 1 bad month. Also depends on if you have other sources of income or a full/part time job. I encourage every trader and aspiring trader to have multiple sources of income, don't rely solely on trading. Not just for the sake of mitigating pressure but also for sanity. If you have a family to provide for, I don't know what that's like, you never know when Little Johnny is going to randomly pick up Trombone lessons for a school program/play while little Suzie needs transmission work in her car because a simple solenoid went out. $1,700 later.
"Why do you need so many monitors?"I use 3 for trading. The 4th is for music. The other 2 are useless while trading. That's for trading though. When I made the decision to go full time, I knew I was about to go off the chain with research. And sifting between spreadsheets, a platform to see multiple timeframes for a pattern to backtest. My attention span is short, I'll lose my train of thought before I open the other tab to input data. But the main reason was for research. It's such a time saver and is a headache repellant when doing research while everything is laid out in front of you. Now that I have a system. I'll most likely be treating myself to 2 ultrawides for Christmas.
As always, thank you to everybody who takes time out to message me and letting me know some people read these and show appreciation. I would say, "Good luck" but there is no luck in trading. Just statistics. Remember that! In conclusion: Yes. Full time trading is possible, depending where you live/monthly expenses and obligations. You're more likely to become a profitable trader than a professional athlete. There is a level of uncertainty each day, perhaps each week, doubtful each month, and definitely not each year. If I ever want a raise, I just consult my business plan and financials, then decide if I can handle it mentally. If you have medical issues, get a part time job for the benefits. If you're healthy, just be careful. All the best! -CJT2013
CreateYoureReality NFL SUPER WILDCARD WEEKEND Analysis and Picks
Week 17 Recap: Meh. Overall it was a decent week, we just missed on the Jets plus some points for a big day on a few plays. Singles (10-12 +4.02u) Parlays (0-2 -7u) Teasers (0-1 -3.86u) BBDLS(0-7 -9u) https://preview.redd.it/3q91paz3rba61.jpg?width=680&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7f33be1eb67eb515b339c606d16728951a301378 Super Wildcard Weekend!!! Saturday Games Colts at Bills: Quite an interesting matchup to open the day. The Colts only made it to the playoffs this year because the Bills helped them get in. The Colts needed the Bills to beat Miami in week 17, otherwise the Bills would be re-matching Miami, a team that they clearly would have crushed if they rested starters for a loss in week 17 like PIT. How ironic would it be if the Colts bumped the Red HOT Bills out in the first round?! 😅 Welp.... "The Bills are the fourth team over the last 40 seasons to enter the playoffs on an eight-game cover streak. The three teams before them all covered the spread in their first playoff game and won by at least 12 points. Additionally, Indy has failed to cover in each of its last three games, which is the longest active streak by a playoff team. "... it looks as if it might be an uphill battle. However, lets not hop on the Bills Mafia train too quickly. It appears that around 80% of the tickets and the cash are on the Bills, but the line hasn't moved from its 6.5 open except to DROP down to 6 in some spots. This is very indicative on some sharp money keeping balance on the Indy side. The same is true for the total. 80% of the tickets and 75% of the money is on the over, but the line opened 51.5 and has stayed true, or dropped to 51 in some spots. Looking deeper, we see one of the Bills weaknesses is their run defense. That plays perfectly into the Colts build as they are a team that likes to play great defense, establish the run, and take a few shots with Rivers. Also, Indianapolis ranks second in the NFL with an average of 10.3 first-quarter points per game and the Colts scored at least 20 points in the first half in four of their final five games. If the Colts can build an early lead and rely on the run, this game has potential for an upset. Especially with how sneaky good their defense can be. As hard as it may be to bet, the value seems to be on the Colts with the points. If you're feeling really spicy and public contrarian, this is one of the three games I think a contrarian play holds some value this weekend. Rams at Seahawks: The first of the two divisional rematches of the weekend. The LA Rams won their week 17 game with a backup QB in his first start. That places them up against the Seahawks who ended the season with a close divisional win vs. the 49ers. (Before typing this rest of this match up, I want to put a disclaimer of Bias. I am on the Hawk train this year. My futures plays include them, and Baltimore(I had 4 futures plays paying above my "true odds" but the only two I played were SEA and BAL) Take my write up on this game with a grain of salt as I will be predicting SEA to win every game until they hold the SuperBowl trophy 🤑) First off we have the Rams. One of the main things they have going for them is their defense. It is by far the best in the league, with the next closest defense being the Steelers. That defense is legit, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them sack Russ a few times and if they are lucky, get points on defense. The second thing they have going for them is their coach. I think (don't quote me) McVay is 5-3 against SEA since he took over and he just won last week with a QB that had never played a NFL snap and went on to throw a pick on the opening drive and score 0 TDs in the game. Even IF Goff comes back and is 100% healthy, he only threw for 536 yards with 0 touchdowns and an interception while posting a QBR of under 55 in the combined first two matchups this year. Now Seattle on the other hand. If they can pull it all together, meaning their first half of the season offense with their second half of the season defense....Game over. On the league. For this game in particular though, I don't think much has to be done. The most I can give back up QB for the Rams is 10-13 points and if Goff is in, I give him a ceiling of 20-23 points (Ceiling is all things going well) So IF Goff his 100 percent healthy, hits his ceiling, AND the Rams defense continues its regular season dominance by helping out with a score and keeping SEA under 24-27, then maybe the Rams can win. But lets be real, the Rams were my second favorite team to come out of the NFC (Behind SEA) until they played the Jets. From that game on, it has been a feeling of MEH, when considering the Rams chances to advance this year. And to top that feeling off, Russ is a perfect 5-0 in post season Home Games and Carrol is also perfect at home in the post season at 6-0. The last time that Seattle lost in the playoffs at home was against the St. Louis Rams in 2004. Now I know this isn't the Legion of Boom, and the 12th man won't be there because...COVID... but Russ and company having the edge of no travel, sleep in their own bed... Is all I need. I am ride or die on Seattle, baby! Tampa Bay at Washington: This is one of the harder games for me to gauge. My algo has this as a Tampa Bay victory the majority of the time (82/18). It sees this game similar to the Rams situation in that their defense is pretty good, can possibly get some points, but the offense may have a hard time finding the end zone. My algo does favor this spot for the WAS defense, more than it does the Rams defense, based solely on the offensive line for TB vs SEA and the mobility of SEA QB vs. Lead Toes Tommy when he is under pressure. But, EVEN IF WAS somehow gets a defensive score and an extra turnover or two, can they really keep up with how Brady has been playing as of late? Alex Smith hasss returned from his gruesome injury like some kind of God, going 5-1 in his 6 starts this year. ANNNNND The only home underdogs of over a TD in NFL playoff history: • 2010 7-9 Seahawks WON OUTRIGHT "Beast Quake" - Marshawn Lynch's TD literally set off vibrations • 2011 8-8 Broncos WON OUTRIGHT "Tebow 3:16" - Tim Tebow throws for 316 yards & OT TD • 2020 7-9 Washington ????Five years ago, a 7-8-1 Carolina Panthers team coached by Ron Rivera beat an 11-5 Arizona Cardinals team coached by Bruce Arians in the first round of the playoffs. So confused on this one, I may just look at Gronk to score a TD (He and Brady need 1 to break the record for QB/Pass catcher post season) and stay away from everything else. But Ill probably end up teasing TB and then around game time taking WAS plus the points and looking for a middle. Sunday Games Honestly, It is 2am and I wanna get some sleep. I will touch this up tomorrow, post it and post Sunday games on Sunday morning. Singles (101-128-1, -26.09u)
Colts 1Q ml (1u to win 1.6u)
Colts 1Q Over 6.5 (1.5u to win 2u)
Colts +7.5 (2.7u to win 2u)
Lockett 60.5 Rec Yards Over (2.5u to win 2u)
Lockett 75+ Rec Yards and TD (0.5u to win 1.38u)
Gronk ATTS and Bucs win (2u to win 4.8u)
Mclaurin 70.5 Rec Yards Over (2.5u to win 2.5u)
Mclaurin 75+ Rec Yards and TD (0.5u to win 1.13u)
Parlays (6-32, +26.96u)
Colts 1Q +3.5, SEA ml, TB ml, Bal ml, Mitch T 15.5 Rush Yards Over, Cle 1Q +3.5 (12.43u to win183.07)
Colts 1Q +1.5, SEA ml, TB ml, Bal ml, Cle 1Q +1.5 (5u to win 69.65u)Basically the same bet, this was a profit boost on DK.
Teasers (4-5, +30.74u)
TB -2, PIT ml (1.3u to win 1u)
BBDLS (0-73, -59.24u)
Colts 16.5 First half points OVER, SEA ml, TB ml, BAL ml, CLE 1Q ml, Mitch T ATTS (4.57u to win 1001u)
Futures plays: (Disclaimer: This is the first season I am making such large Futures plays. These are based upon my algo, but more importantly the fact that the poker side of my life had a great 2020 and I set aside extra Bankroll for just this type of play. My future plays have a very small sample size of being +EV so tail with caution...because I sure am) Seattle to win the NFC (100u to win 600u) Seattle to win the Super Bowl (83.33u to win 1000u) So, when crunching the different SB scenarios (with a Bias towards SEA having a 75% chance to win this first game and 50% chances to win the next two) It gave me that the SEA/BAL matchup was at 3.4 percent of the time and if we assume SEA wins that 50% of the time we get crudely a 1.7% chance of happening. DK is paying 100-1 for SEA to beat BAL in the superbowl. Since I already have futures on SEA to win the NFC and SB, I took the SEA to beat BAL 100-1 odds thinking that if by some stroke of luck we get the 1.7% universe, I will have already won SEA to win NFC and can consider hedging those winnings on the BAL side if they happen to be catching points. I know its a universe that is only 1.7% in existence (and that's in my mind too, haha) but based upon those calculations the casinos true odds should be closer to 58.8-1 and they are paying 100 to 1. So to wrap all that up... LETS GO ALL BIRDS SUPERBOWL!!!! SEA to beat BAL in the SuperBowl (90u to win 9000u) Thanks for reading everyone! Check back tomorrow for my Sunday picks. Good luck to all! 🤩
Previous: The Humanity of Kanagi (Vampire) Fear is a concept that we're all accustomed to. As humans, we move toward things that move us toward feelings of pleasure and away from those that inflict pain or misery. Some things are ingrained into us, for example, snakes and spiders tend to arouse an automatic response related to anxiety, while it's common for us to avoid extremely high places or paths full of sharp objects. As was the case of Little Albert, the baby used in the (questionably moral) experiment that demonstrated conditioning an individual to fear something (in this case, fuzzy objects, something that stuck with Albert as he got older), fears can be "taught", either through personal experiences or second-hand. Interestingly enough, the concept of fear and hesitance develops early in our lives, as demonstrated in such experiments as this that observes infants who, at the start of learning to crawl, will not slow their pace when traveling over glass platforms, but begin to slow as they become more experienced with moving around, something that can be explained as a result of "trial and error", as infants fall and tumble. Easy enough, right? Us avoiding things that certainly will harm us can be justified without much thought required...but what about individuals who chase risk, these so called "daredevils" that would appear almost suicidal from most of our perspectives? Yukika happens to be one of my favorite characters in Magia Record, both in design and also her character background. As is the case with most characters in this series, Yukika has motivation behind her (reckless) behavior, which makes reading into her more interesting. With that all being said:
Yukika in Wonderland
I'll say it again, but Yukika's aesthetic is really fantastic to me, in that, as some of you might recognize already, it is based off of Lewis Carroll's Alice in Wonderland. What is amazing is the fact that this isn't a random choice in design, rather, it's based on the reckless/brave choices of the main character, Alice. From the start of the story, Alice spots the famous rabbit and immediately decides to chase it, even going as far as falling through a rabbit hole. This situation would coin the term "falling down the rabbit hole", which describes one moving (usually willfully) into a situation that is difficult, but very tempting. Another famous scene involves Alice finding a suspicious potion with the label "Drink me" attached to it, to which she responds:
“Well, I'll eat it. If it makes me grow larger, I can reach the key; and if it makes me grow smaller, I can creep under the door; so either way I'll get into the garden, and I don't care which happens!”
Most of us here would, hopefully, not be so open with drinking some random bottle that we found in a random spot, especially with the innocent but foreboding message to "drink it". Alice, however, chose to take a gamble and chug the thing as if it were lemonade. Coincidentally enough, Yukika's nature and effect of her wish bares semblance to that of Alice's adventures, where it is revealed in her respective event that Yukika tends to teleport or be drawn to difficult situations that can only be solved with her own wit (gambit). Looking at Yukika's appearance, she is modeled off a popular interpretation of casino-workers, which includes fancy suits and, err...bunny ears. Sometimes. This, of course, fits Yukika's theme as a gambler and her inspiration from Alice in Wonderland, but her artist is just really into bunny-girls and takes a lot of pride in Yukika, hence him being so active on his Twitter. Most of the content is SFW, but tread carefully, as he has drawn Yukika more perversely. Bunny's are a symbol of luck, being popular for their feet, in particular, but are also rather impulsive animals. In addition to this, they are also rather fearful little critters who show fear of heights, closed in spaces, my niece, and even cuddling, despite our desire to want to hug the furry little things. It's common for animals, especially of the small variety, to show fear, however, rabbits are most known to panic and can even die of literal heart attacks if placed under too much pressure. Hanging from Yukika's neck is her heart-shaped soulgem, which is chained to her choker. The heart is, of course, is pretty vital to us, so Yukika having it out and dangling by a chain is meant to demonstrate how her life is constantly hanging over danger...literally, considering that a magical girl's soulgem is what keeps them up and moving. To demonstrate this, Yukika wields a basic rapier, which, in of itself, isn't remarkable. But here's the thing: rapiers are not at all intended to be brought to real fights. They're just not suited for real combat when you consider the fact they're smaller than other blades/melee weapons and not at all good against an onslaught of opponents. In older times, rapiers would be used for duels, much like how cowboys would famously duel with handcannons, where the first person to land a hit would often be the winner, while the other loser gets a free ticket to the afterlife. Put into perspective, Yukika would be really outmatched in a straight sword-fight against, say, Momoko, as a major advantage she'd have, speed, is rather moot, as Momoko is strong enough as a magical girl to swing her giant sword around without much trouble. Yukika does, however, have precision, and if by some lucky chance she got a clear stab at Momoko's soulgem, that would be all she wrote. In other words, much like how Yukika's in-game abilities surrounding an emnity effect, are high-risk, high-reward, so is her combat ability. So just why is Yukika like this?
An Addiction to Thrill
As you probably know already, there are real-life people out there who are similar to Yukika. Some people jump from planes, bridges, mountains, others wrestle with apex predators, and then there are those who are foolish enough to throw money at gacha games for a...a small chance to...err... ...before I get a bit too real here, there are plenty of real live daredevils with different motives. Some like money and fame, but that doesn't explain why non-famous individuals are willing to risk their lives, even when they payoff is not at all equivocal to the risk/danger. Yukika has a very high-quality upbringing, where she receives a very good education and would easily be considered pampered. With such a lifestlye, one doesn't have to be too concerned with most stresses that afflict commonfolk, paying bills, providing resources for a family, otherwise climbing the ladder toward a better life, considering people like Yukika are already there. This sounds extremely comfortable on paper, and I'm pretty sure we won't see Touka complaining about inheriting a few of her dad's private jets when she gets older. To Yukika, however, a life without any risks is boring and unfulfilling, made even worse by the fact that she isn't even at the top of her own food chain. So where does a girl like Yukika get her thrills? Apparently through legally and morally questionable game centers that would make EA reevaluate their sales tactics. Although we are designed to avoid potential harm, some activities, especially gambling, feel so damn good. This is something I think a lot of us here can relate to. Think about all the times you've rolled the "free gacha" in Magia Record or any other mobile game and compare it to rolling the premium gacha. Odds are: you probably find doing so a lot less exciting (outside specific examples) as it lacks "grand" rewards, but also a large degree of "risk" since we're using a less limited resource. Rolling, in general, is meant to make us feel excited, and this goes from audio/visual cues that indicate a "grand prize" HIT to our favorite word: "limited". Same can be said for standard casinos, there are details everywhere that make us want to keep on rolling, and this is perfect for a girl like Yukika, as these sorts of thrills affect just about anyone, regardless of socioeconomic status/wealth. Granted, some of us can afford risk more than others, of course. This can all be explained by adrenaline, the fight/flight juice that kicks in our bodies when experiencing high levels of stress. This reaction was originally supposed to help us run from dinosaurs by allowing our bodies to achieve superhuman-like levels of strength and endurance, but because we're all clear of most those dangers, adrenaline pops for circumstances that revolve less around getting eaten. Needless to say, this "high" feels rather pleasant, and gambling, in general, already toys with the reward centers in our brain. There's a bit of a catch to this. As humans, we tend to be impressively resilient, and the more we're exposed to negative stimuli, the faster we build a tolerance to it. This applies to spicy/bitter foods, horror movies/scary things, violence/indecent imagery, and, of course gambling/danger. In terms of defense, this is awesome, but in terms of wanting to be stimulated and often, it's a bit of a killjoy. Also very dangerous for people like Yukika whose response would be to seek even greater danger. There's a quite a bit more to this, and I only covered gambling, as that's the most recognizable example for us gacha players. If you're interested but want an easy-to-digest source, Gyakkyou Burai Kaiji and Kakegurui toy around with compulsive behavior. Admittedly, though, I'd suggest the latter after the former, despite Kakegurui having one of my favorite, modern anime characters who is also voiced by my favorite Japanese voice actress. Otherwise, Poker Alice can tell us more about Yukika's behavior:
Poker Alice, The Doppel of Boredom
The Doppel of boredom. Its form is a daredevil. The master of this emotion feels a great and terrible boredom towards her peaceful life, spent sitting atop an easy chair. This Doppel imitates the form of an imaginary monster known as a “Dare-Devil,” and constantly covers its master’s eyes to prevent her from becoming aware of the danger in front of her. The Doppel currently boasts an undefeated record in battle, and is beginning to feel the same dangerous boredom as its master at the fact that no enemy powerful enough to overwhelm it has yet appeared. As a result, it’s been fighting more and more perilous battles by the day… but since her vision is obscured, its master still peacefully allows it to guard her back even as we speak.
As if Karin's doppel didn't have a surprising reference, Poker Alice is a direct reference to an old, western movie that followed the main character, Alice Moffat, played by the lovely Elizabeth Taylor. As you would expect from the trailer, Alice is a gambling gal who, like Yukika, desired to escape her life as comfort for one that was a bit more dangerous and exciting. The movie takes its name from "Poker" Alice Huckert, a real live Englishwoman who worked/managed a casino and brothel ring. Alice was always fond of poker, but this hobby became more serious after her husband died from a mining accident. Since then, Alice would splurge all of her winnings on luxuries such as clothing. Along with being a famed poker player, Alice was known for seducing men/opponents to get an edge in-game, as well as carrying a gun at all times and being constantly drunk. But it is said that she did not play on Sundays, so as we could see, Alice was a woman with high moral values. Eventually, at the age of 60, Alice's life of craziness would catch up to her, as she would be arrested for prostitution and bootlegging. Alice, the Doppel, is a strange being with hearts, clubs, diamonds, and spades tattoo'd on its body. We know these as parts of the suit we see on playing cards, with hearts symbolizing love (romantic and/or sexual), clubs as desire (for knowledge), diamonds as a passion for obtaining wealth, and spades as a forewarning for danger, most particularly death--otherwise known as the 4 components of human nature. Alice and Yukika sit atop a rocking chair, something that is normally comforting and practically free of danger, however, such a thing can become dangerous if one were to wildly swing on it. It's form is that of a monster which plays on the term "daredevil", or people who are aggressive risk-takers. Alice represents the idea that humans tend to gradually become more and more resistant to fear as they experience such stimuli. As such: it is layered in nature, which we can describe by observing Yukika, Alice, and the chair they sit on:
Yukika, alone, rocks on a chair. Such an action becomes mundane until Alice first manifests.
The first layer of Alice covers Yukika's eyes, who is not yet used to the newfound danger in front of her, as the weight of two beings would cause the chair to tilt further back/forward. This action becomes boring as the second layer of Alice manifests.
The second layer of Alice covers the eyes of the first Alice (with its mouth) just like the first covers the face of Yukika. The chair tilts even further, but this action eventually becomes bland.
The third layer of Alice manifests and does the same as the others. At this point, the chair is now becoming dangerous to sit on with everything rocking on it---but this is not enough to quench Alice's desire for excitement.
The final layer of Alice spawns as the others did, but this time, it rocks the chair to its full capacity. It opens its eyes and fully embraces the danger, as the other layers raise up their hands and yell in anticipation, just as one would while riding a rollercoaster. At this point, the rocking chair isn't a source of comfort, rather, danger and fear, as Yukika and Alice risk being thrown off.
Alice is a very mouthy Doppel, which reminded me of the Album Always Open Mouth by the band "Fear". However, this band is an extremely unlikely reference, given how underground the band is, so I'm about 99% sure that this is just pure coincidence. After every battle, Alice becomes stronger, but this is more a curse than it is a blessing, for Alice desires a constant stream of challenge and risks. In response, this Doppel seeks out more dangerous foes, unknown to Yukika, who has lost her sense of danger. For all intents and purposes, Alice is very compatible with Yukika, a girl who is at her best (namely during gameplay) when she faces imminent danger. As a final note, I know I stretched this to be part of my Halloween series, despite it not being very spooky, so, uhh...ooga booga! Next is the conclusion to my Halloween series, featuring Holy Momoko. After that, I will continue my normal schedule with the Kazumi girls and then move on to Mikage, a character I've actually been working on on/off for a month now.
Simple ways I've found to save money or How I'm earning $500 an hour
Edit: Probably going to be a truckload of downvotes due to the title. Do your worst. But for newbies to leanfire I think it's helpful to think this way. I'm not trying to say I earn $500 an hour 40 hours a week, but rather that's how much I earned for some of the hours I spent reducing my expenses. Can't change the title now though. So I just wanted to share this info because it's so exciting to me. I've already hit leanfire with my average spending being about $1000 a month. But ever since I got into being frugal I have to say it's actually more fun then when I was earning big bucks. Every time I figure out a way to save money it's like hitting a little jackpot at the casino (I don't gamble, just illustrating the feeling). So here are some ways I've found since I hit leanfire (about 9 months ago) 1) Cut my own hair. Savings ($25 per month, $300 per year, $1,500 in 5 years). I did this pre-corona but it ended up having a 2 fold benefit for me. Obviously it was required for a lot of people with corona, but the reason I did it because I HATE getting a haircut. I'm a guy, and maybe that's part of it, but I just don't like waiting around, then having them do a so-so job. Plus, now it takes me 30 minutes, instead of a hour (with 15 minutes both ways). It's a little challenging at first, but people say they don't notice anything different. 2) Switching from TMobile to Mint Mobile ($95 per month, $1,140 per year, $5,700 in 5 years) - This was a huge win for me. I found out that they both use the same network... I tried it out without switching my phone over. Now I pay (20 a month * 2) + ($15 a month that TMobile was paying for my netflix account). So $55 a month now vs 140 a month before! This was my biggest win by far but it was so satisfying. I love the service (and the app is better than TMobile. I have 8 gigs of data a month, which is fine. I'm cutting it close sometimes, but still I'm doing good on that. My total expenses for the year are only 12k, so saving $1,140 a year is an ENTIRE MONTH for me. 3) Down grade my Internet plan ($27 per month, $324 per year, $1,600 in 5 years). I had Comcast's 100 mbps plan when I really only needed 25. Max streams we have at one time is 2, and that isn't too often. So now I'll be on their lowest plan. Isn't that great though? Finding savings where you didn't really know you could? Literally nothing changes for me and I'm gonna save a lot. This took about 20 minutes to figure out and change. And considering it will earn me $324 a year, doing the math that comes out to $972 an hour as far as the rate I'm earning for my time. Being conscious of your spending and whittling down expenses has a ridiculously high rate of return. 4) Buying my own router ($15 per month, $180 per year, $900 in 5 years) - While I was checking my internet services I realized that I was renting that stupid Comcast Modem. I went online to see if there was a good replacement. Sure enough, for $120 I could get a great one and it would pay for itself in 9 months. But instead being the cheap sucker that I am, I decided to buy a used one from Amazon Warehouse for $60. Sure it's gonna be beat up, but I could buy 2 for that price. So even if it only lasts for a year I can buy another similar one for that price. Win! (Note, it will take 4 months to break even on it, but after that total profit). Took about an hour, so 180/hr! 5) Turning my coffee marker off when not in use ($40 a month, $480 a year, $2,400 in 5 years) - So this began as an investigation as to why my electric bill was so high. I started going out to the meter and literally using a stop watch to see how fast the meter was spinning per minute. As I was doing that I noticed that it starts FLYING ahead (1 rotation was taking 60 seconds, then it went to taking 2 seconds!!!!). I couldn't understand what was going on. So I started looking up the watts on things I use. 300w or so for the fridge, can't do much about that. Then I came to the coffee maker. 900watts!!! And we leave it on all the time. My dad and I drink coffee, at least a pot and a half of coffee a day each (yes it's a lot I know lol). But if you do the math 900 watts * lets say 20 hours a day * .16 cents per watt (which I pay), comes to $86.50 a month. JUST ON MY STUPID COFFEE MAKER. I had no idea! So the solution was to get a big restaurant sized thermos so after we use it we can stick it in there and it keeps it pretty hot for quite a while. CRAZY that this could have been the cause of my high utility bill. Took like 3 hours to figure out. So 'only' $160/hr (https://www.energy.gov/energysavemaps/appliance-energy-calculator) 6) Change my own oil ($40 savings quarterly, $160 per year, $800 in 5 years). I was always a cheap sucker, so when I was 18, with no knowledge I went and changed my brakes on my own, calipers and roters as well. This led to fixing things like Alternators and starters. (Brakes one time were going to $1,700, I did it for $225). I always avoided doing oil because it's a dirty process, which it is, but it takes nearly 2 hours at the dealership where as it takes me about 45 mins to do it myself. I hate waiting lol. The savings is even larger if you are working. It took about $100 in parts (ramps and stuff), so it'll take a few times of doing it to break even. But the hour I get back is invaluable. 7) Signed up for an Amazon credit card ($100). They had a free promotion where you get $100 if you sign up. You don't get a physical card, it's just used for amazon purchases. I'll never use it, but it's awesome I got it for free!
Total Savings per year: $2,584
So literally without giving up much, and not even counting the savings I got by time saved, I am saving $216 a month or almost $2,600 a year. In just 5 years that'll be $13,000 (more if you invest it). When you figure that my yearly burn is $12,000 that is a 21% savings on my whole year expenses. With that money I could buy all new furniture, a small boat, many great TV's, a new computer or two, a cheap car payment or probably a million other things. In my case I'm just gonna invest it probably, but really this didn't take me that long and now I'm gonna save a bundle. I love it! So yeah, that's it. I honestly didn't need any of these savings, but being ultra frugal is fun in and of itself. Now I have a $800 a month burn instead of $1000. Hope this helps some of you! It was a really great feeling for me! Happy savings!
READ THIS FIRST: Official Frequently Asked Questions and Answers - Important Up to Date Information You Need To Know about EIDL
\*LAST UPDATED 8/01**)
OFFICIAL FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS FOR EIDL
PURPOSE: This post will be a master thread with everything we have collectively learned on EIDL about the loan and the application process. It will be updated on an ongoing basis and will always contain the most current information. Things change frequently at the SBA with policy and you should check back on this thread on a regular basis. Please post any questions not covered and I will respond and add them here. INDEX OF QUESTIONS:
How do I get in touch with customer service phone support?
What are my chances of being approved for this loan? Can I know in advance?
I received a decline letter for “Business activity not eligible”. What can I do?
How is the loan amount calculated? How can I request a specific amount?
What is the maximum loan amount?
When will I get my portal invite?
I finally got a portal invite and accepted and submitted an amount. My application says it is "processing", now what?
I understand that processing really means "underwriting", but how long will it actually take? What is the normal amount of time?
Does contacting my congressmen or senator actually work?
I accidentally entered the wrong revenue or COGS on my application and my offer amount was lower than I expected, is it possible to change this?
I need to change my Rev or COGS and I already accepted an amount in the portal, Tier 2 told me to do it! Is it too late?
Who are you, cue378? Can you help me?
My loan as obligated or already funded, I made a mistake with my COGS or revenue and I am not happy with the amount. Can I change it?
How do I show support for the volunteers and moderators for EIDL
I received my portal link, but when I go to create an account it just takes me to the login page. What can be done?
I was declined for "unsatisfactory credit". What are my options?
What documents are required? Will a loan officer contact me?
What is the status of the Advance/Grant program? Can I still get a grant?
What are the eligible uses of EIDL funds?
I received a denial letter for the reason "ECONOMIC INJURY NOT SUSTAINED". What does this mean and what can I do?
What is CAWEB and how can it help me track my loan disbursement and other status?
1. QUESTION: How do I get in touch with customer service phone support? ANSWER: The highest level of official customer service is known as "tier 2" and can be reached by calling 1-800-659-2955 and asking for Tier 2. (NOTE: As of 5/29 the previous direct number is currently out of service) They are unfortunately, a very limited means of support. They are able to check your application status and see the current "stage" and leave notes in your file, but unable to directly make any changes or escalate anything in a meaningful way. Most are very nice and well meaning people but are usually poorly informed and often provided contradictory information between calls. The important thing to understand is that notes left by T2 do not actually notify a loan officer or anyone, they are simply waiting to be read if someone happens to open your file and takes the time to review the case notes. So if a T2 says they requested a change do not assume it was or will be made. 2. QUESTION: What are my chances of being approved for this loan? Can I know in advance? ANSWER: The loan is relatively easy to get approval for by loan standards. The exact underwriting criteria the SBA is using was leaked by some helpful people (hat tip to u/Sbaleaky) and thus you can have a good understanding what your chances are. Underwriters look for the following: -Minimum Credit Score of 570. They will pull from experian. Close to Vantage 3 model found on nav DOT com or TransUnion numbers on credit karma. They do NOT use FICO. Credit score is largest factor for approval for this loan and no exceptions are made for under 570. -If economic injury was sustained based on formula described in QUESTION 4. If this is a negative number you will be auto declined. (SEE QUESTION 5) The SBA does not consider potential revenue lost or general expenses in the loan amount. -Tax liens or tax issues are NOT a disqualifying factor or taken into consideration for COVID19 disaster. -Business start date must be prior to 1/31/20 -open bankruptcies = Declined. Closed OK. -Arrest for felony < 5 years = Declined -Arrest for misdemeanor < 5 years = Declined -Sole proprietors with delinquent child support > 60 days = Declined -Any business principals with 50% or more ownership with delinquent child support > 60 days = Declined -Your business must pass verification in some way that it is a valid operation. If they can find it on google it will suffice. Otherwise you may have to provide documents to prove it's a legit business. -Your business type must not be on the list for ineligible business activity. See list on FAQ. -All owners on application must be either US citizens or Permanent Residents. E-2 Investor visa is NOT eligible and any attempts to appeal or add a co-borrower who is a citizen or LPR will be unsuccessful. Corporations, Partnerships, and Limited Liability Entities (LLE): Alien-owned corporations, partnerships, and LLEs properly registered and licensed in the state where the disaster occurred are eligible. If any member, partner, or shareholder, owning 20 percent or more of the applicant business is in the USA they must be a qualified alien. If the alien resides outside the USA an exception may be made. 3. QUESTION: I received a decline letter for “Business activity not eligible”. What can I do? ANSWER: EIDL has a list of restricted business categories, if your type is NOT on this list and you still received this letter you may have been improperly classified. The following applicants are not eligible for EIDL assistance.
7-Eleven Franchise Stores, despite what corp office says. (advance is OK)
Lending or Investment Concerns (except for real estate investments held for rental)
Multi-level Sales Distribution (Pyramid) Concerns c. Speculative Activities d. Non-profit Organizations that are not considered a Private Non-Profit
Consumer and Marketing Cooperatives. However, other cooperatives and small agricultural cooperatives meeting applicable size standards are eligible f. Not a small business concern (except for PNP of any size) g. Gambling Concerns. Concerns that derive more than one-third of their annual gross revenue from legal gambling activities.
Casinos, Racetracks, Etc. Businesses whose purpose for being is gambling (such as casinos, racetracks, poker parlors, etc.) are not eligible for EIDL assistance regardless of their ability to meet the one-third criteria established for otherwise eligible concerns.
Loan packagers who derives more than one-third of their annual volume from the preparation of applications seeking financial assistance from SBA
Political or Lobbying Concerns.
Pawn shops, when 50 percent or more of previous year’s income was derived 50 30 9 71 Effective Date: May 31, 2018 from interest
Real Estate Developers. Establishments primarily engaged in subdividing real property into lots and developing it for resale on their own account.
Life Insurance Companies.
Concerns Engaged in Illegal Activities (as defined by Federal guidelines). p. Government-owned concerns, except for businesses owned or controlled by a Native American tribe.
Concerns with Principals Incarcerated, on Parole or Probation: remain ineligible if the parole or probation is lifted solely because it is an impediment to obtaining a loan.
Concerns engaged in live performances of, or the Sale of Products, Services, of a Prurient Sexual Nature.
Businesses considered as hobbies.
Concerns Involved in Change in Ownership Situations: Concerns which had a substantial change of ownership (more than 50 percent) after the impending economic injury became apparent, and no contract for sale existed prior to that time are ineligible .
4. QUESTION: How is the loan amount calculated? How can I request a specific amount? ANSWER: There is no way to request a specific amount, the eligible amount is calculated automatically by formula based on your inputs. There are three known formulas:
Standard Small Business: Revenue minus COGS divided by 2 minus advance, subject to maximum of 150K
Not for Profit: 6 months operating expenses year prior to 1/31/20
Business that collects rental property income, your offer is calculated by lost rents due to the disaster, not the standard formula. If your offer is lower than expected you may have been wrongly classified into this formula.
Agricultural businesses: 6 months operating expenses year prior to 1/31/20
If the formula results in a negative number or less than your advance you will be declined for "ECONOMIC INJURY NOT SUSTAINED" 5. QUESTION: What is the maximum loan amount? ANSWER: As of last update it is currently 150K cap. This will not change anytime soon and there will be no way to request more at present. The only way to avoid the cap is if your loan was already being obligated prior to the change by the SBA from 500K. If I hear anything new on this it will be updated here. 6. QUESTION: When will I get my portal invite? ANSWER: Portal invites are a fully automated process and not strictly sequential but follow general group patterns. If you see someone that has a higher number than you get a portal invite it does NOT mean you were "passed over". 7. QUESTION: I finally got a portal invite and accepted and submitted an amount. My application says it is "processing", now what? ANSWER: This is when the actual loan process starts and underwriting begins. Your application will be assigned a loan officer for review using the criteria listed in question 2. The exact process is as follows (hat tip u/sbaleaky and u/LOL_Face_69) with the actual stages from start to finish. Keep in mind that once you accept in the portal a number of things are going on behind the scenes, which is why "processing" can take a great deal of time. Once you see a loan amount in your portal, this is NOT a "pre-approved offer". It is simply a potential amount you are eligible for based on the stated formula if you pass underwriting.
Initial Call Needed (credit not ran)
Credit Pulled (waiting for automated portal invitation, this is by far the longest part of the process)
Quoted (received portal invite with an eligible amount)
Offer Accepted (you confirmed and submitted an amount in the portal)
Submitted Deal (waiting to be assigned to a Loan Officer)
LO assigned and makes decision: Declined, Duplicate, Approved
[The following takes place behind the scenes and will not reflect in your portal, but will still say "processing"]
Approved: T2 Rep can now see your loan is approved on their screen. This means the Loan Officer has approved the deal and it is now going to the Senior Loan Officer. If the SLO does not approve the deal then it will go to declined.
Obligating: SLO known as a "team leader" reviews the work of the first LO to ensure everything was done correctly. Once they sign off on the deal the loan is now fully approved. The loan is being sent to the E-Tran system to receive a loan number. The loan has not yet received a loan number from E-Tran while obligating. This is the most common phase where hang ups in "processing" can error called "error in obligating". Usually due to small technical issues or errors in your information that need to be sorted.
Obligated: A loan number from E-Tran has been obtained and now closing documents can be drafted and sent to the borrower. This is when your portal would change from "processing" to approved. There may be a delay between when your offer is obligated to when it actually shows approved. I have seen it happen in as fast as 10 minutes or as long as 12 hours. You can also see approved but not have docs available. Docs will not show up until you get an email with the approval. The delay on this can be a few hours or more.
Funding: Docs are signed and the loan is automatically moved to funding stage to have treasury issue an ACH. This happens very quickly and you should see the ACH sent right after with the funds arriving in 24-48 hours on banking days. At this point you can track the disbursement with your loan number from the docs using CAWEB to see if the ACH has been sent. See CAWEB question.
Funded: Process complete, funds are successfully in your bank account. Congrats
Note: The exception to this process is that some applications which are considered easy (based on unknown factors) to approve are subject to full automation and may go straight to approval bypassing the above steps. This only happens in rare cases. You may also see a status that says, "On-Hold" Amount $0: This status typically is when your loan was temporarily declined and is still in the reconsideration department pending possible reconsideration approval. It most commonly relates to credit based issues or problems pulling your credit report from Experian. 8. QUESTION: I now understand that processing really means "underwriting", but how long will it actually take? What is the normal amount of time? ANSWER: The amount of time it is normal for your portal to say "processing" is highly variable as a hundred different factors are involved behind the scenes. Once you submit for processing you are in queue to be assigned a loan officer**.** If your application has been in underwriting for greater than 20 days it may merit investigate, but not necessarily indicate a problem with your chances of approval. Do NOT panic if it seems "stuck" with no communication from anyone. This is normal.
UPDATE: As of 7/20 the current queue/wait time to be assigned a loan officer, get approved, and have closing docs drafted is 14-18 days. Some are seeing immediate automated approvals same day, this only happens in around 30% of cases. The rest must be manually processed. You are NOT "stuck" if you are still within this time range.
9. QUESTION: Does contacting my congressmen or senator actually work? ANSWER: Yes, the SBA treats congressional inquiry very carefully and will flag and sometimes white glove your application. Often they will assign a special case worker during the process. The important thing is when your local congressional office reaches out they do NOT contact the local district SBA but this email: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]). This email is NOT for use by applicants but only official government purposes. 10. QUESTION: Help! I accidentally entered the wrong revenue or COGS on my application and my offer amount was lower than I expected, is it possible to change this? ANSWER: Yes, butonly if you meet the following two conditions:
You should NOT have already accepted an amount and submitted for processing in the portal. *If you already did see note below.
You have documentation to backup the changes such as Federal Tax Returns 2018 or 2019 or P&L Statements. Tax returns are preferred if available but not required if the offer is showing as eligible in the portal.
The important thing here is DO NOT accept the offer in the portal if you need to revise your numbers.
*IF YOU HAVE ALREADY ACCEPTED THE OFFER: Call tier 2 support as soon as you possibly can and ask them to make the following note in your file: Loan Officer, DO NOT approve this file without calling me, the applicant, because my (revenue or COGS) figures are wrong. I have supporting docs to make the changes. Please contact me ASAP. 11. QUESTION: I need to change my Rev or COGS and I already accepted an amount in the portal, Tier 2 told me to do it! Is it too late? Answer: Unfortunately tier 2 is currently giving absolutely terrible advice in this situation. They are telling people to accept the offer in the portal to speak with a loan officer to make the revision. The problem is that once you accept you set the process in motion and then it gets obligated by treasury it is impossible to adjust. The proper time is prior to accepting. Often times loan officers never are needed, never reach out or even read these notes. I see it every day and people are stuck its the "kiss of death" advice. If you already accepted you may have time but would need to work quickly from date of submit. UPDATE: As of 6/15 there is now a way to fix this. See question 13. 12. QUESTION: Who are you, cue378? Can you help me? ANSWER: I am a small business owner sharing the information, strategies, and general knowledge I have gained over the course of 4 months and helping in almost 1000 cases. I do not work at the SBA nor do I have any affiliation with the SBA. Do to an extreme flood of requests for help, I will not be able to answer PM's or chat requests. Some people have asked how they can support my efforts. While I do not ask for donations, another volunteer decided to setup a tip jar in case people want to show their support. To be clear any assistance I offer is entirely free without any expectations. Please note, anything donated prior to contacting me in an effort to gain faster help/special attention won't yield those results, while appreciate your support I keep everything fair to others who don't donate. The tip jar can be found HERE. 13. QUESTION: My loan was obligated, already funded, or I already accepted the amount in the portal. I made a mistake with my COGS or revenue and I am not happy with the amount. Can I change it? ANSWER: As of 6/12 loan modifications are now being allowed. You can contact [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) and request a "Loan Modification increase". It is a 3-4 week process that requires documentation. A second loan will be given for the difference from the first one. It will be processed as a 20xx series loan in the old system/portal. For more details email me. Note if you have not yet accepted the offer the normal process is much faster. 14. QUESTION: How do I show support for the volunteers and moderators forEIDL ANSWER: For supporting Cue378, there is a tip jar listed above. If you wish to show support to our community moderators, you may reach out to them direct at u/tahoechick36 and u/Scorpio14534to ask how you can show your appreciation for their time and efforts. It takes a great deal work run the community and they are putting in a near full time effort outside their normal occupations. 15. QUESTION: I received my portal link, but when I go to create an account it just takes me to the login page or I get the error: "The user account has not been confirmed yet. What can be done? ANSWER: If you takes you back to the login screen instead of letting you create an account, try following the steps HERE 16. QUESTION: I was declined for "unsatisfactory credit". What are my options? ANSWER: You have a few options.
You can bring your vantage 3 score over 570 by paying down cards, when you are ready you can request the SBA re-pull your report and reactivate your account via [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])
*You can request to add a co-borrower that has a higher score than 570 with no open bankruptcy and run their credit to reactivate your application.
*As of July 20th the SBA is no longer allowing the use of a Co-Borrower for reconsideration of an insufficient credit denial. Further details and updates on this situation are available in the threadHERE. 17. QUESTION: What documents are required? Will a loan officer contact me? ANSWER: In many cases no documentation is required and everything is self certified. Most commonly an LO will need to contact you to clarify some things about your business or request specific documents, or confirm your public business presence. In about 1/3 cases you will receive no communication from a loan officer and approvals are automated. For denials you lose self certification ability and you will be required to furnish full documentation. 18. QUESTION: What is the status of the Advance/Grant program? Can I still get a grant? ANSWER: As most of you already know, the EIDL Advance/Grant program has ended and the full 20 billion in funding for the advance has been exhausted. The option has been removed from new applications. Getting funding for the advance as a new applicant at this time will not be possible. For older applications please see this post for more information: https://www.reddit.com/EIDL/comments/hr3l41/eidl_news_714_update_regarding_the_current_status/ 19. QUESTION: What are the eligible uses of EIDL funds? ANSWER: These loans may be used to pay fixed debts, payroll, accounts payable and other bills that can’t be paid because of the disaster’s impact. What are all the possible uses of the funds? The wording ‘obligations that are unable to be met due to lack of revenue’ seems to be a catch all, but how much so? The EIDL working capital loans may be used to pay fixed debts, payroll, accounts payable, and other bills that could have been paid had the disaster not occurred. The loans are not intended to replace lost sales or profits or for expansion. If you have more specific questions on the allowable usage of EIDL funds, one of our moderators, u/Scorpio14534 who is also a licensed professional CPA that is very knowledgeable on this matter is open to email requests. They can be reached here: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) 20. QUESTION: I received a denial letter for the reason "ECONOMIC INJURY NOT SUSTAINED". What does this mean and what can I do? ANSWER: This occurs when the numbers entered on your application for COGS are greater than your revenue. The SBA calculates economic injury based on the formula in question number 4. You can also be denied for this reason if the resulting number is less than your advance amount. Please note that the SBA is only taking into account revenue earned prior to the disaster date of 1/31/20 to calculate your economic injury. If your only revenue was earned after that date as a newer business you may not qualify, but it is possible to use a 12 month projection which you can submit to reconsideration. If the numbers on your application were correct, you would not be eligible for an EIDL. If you made an error you can request an amendment and reactivation of your application. 21. QUESTION: What is CAWEB and how can it help me track my loan disbursement and other status? ANSWER: You can use the Capital Access Finance System to track your EIDL after your documents have been signed and submitted through funding. It allows you to see disbursement status and other details related to your loan. ****Hat tip tou/tahoechick36for this amazing write up*\* Using the Capital Access Finance System to track your EIDL after your documents have been signed and submitted through funding. Visit caweb.sba.gov or click the link at the top of EIDL Setting up an account: You need a SBA Loan # to set up an account - for EIDL it appears on the first page of your documents, in the upper left hand area, and says "SBA Loan # XXXXXXXXXX.” SBA loan #'s are 10 digits. Your Application # will NOT work for account set-up. If you have a PPP Loan, you can use your SBA # for this loan to set up an account. Sometimes this # is easy to figure out, sometimes not. That has to do with an intermediary (like your bank) being involved, but if you can track down an actual SBA Loan #, you can go ahead and get registered without your EIDL loan number.
On the home page click on "Not Enrolled?" in the top left. This takes you to a screen to enter info. You may come to hate this screen, this process is very finicky.
Look at the rules for creating a User ID and Password by clicking on "Rules..." next to the fields.
Write your exact ID & password down somewhere - if you ever get locked out and call the SBA for help, they are going to tell you that Borrowers are not supposed to be able to access CAFS CAWeb. Apparently we still can, so don't make this a big deal or maybe that will change!
For user type - select "borrower" from the drop down menu.
Fill in the highlighted fields with your info. Click on the "ZIP LOOKUP" button after you enter your zip code. This auto populates some other boxes, and registration won't work if you don't do this.
For the country code in the phone number section enter "1" for the United States.
Financial commitment ID is your Loan # - 10 digits.
If you don't have a landline, it has been reported that just entering your mobile number in both fields works. You will have to select 3 of their security questions, enter the Captcha image info, then hit "submit" at the bottom.
If it didn't like the info you have entered, it will give you an error message for what part it didn't like, and you will have to try again, which requires re-entering quite a bit of the information. It's a pain. But if it takes it, you're in! There may be a verification step now as well. Finding your loan on CAWeb
On the caweb homepage, login (if you aren't already), it will be personalized and show your name. You have to scroll down and check the "Agree to Terms" box when you are logging in.
Click on "Borrower" in the top left, then click on "Borrower Search". This should take you to your "Loan List" showing the loan #, borrower name, loan type, amount, and loan status.
PPP loans typically appear as "Active Un-Disbursed" - if your PPP is already funded don't worry about that. Your EIDL will show up as "Disbursed Current" if funds are on their way. It may say something else if you look immediately after you send back you Docs, but it should change pretty quickly. Logging out and back in again will sometimes refresh the status. Loan status will say "Active Un-Disbursed" until Treasury send the funds to your bank, then it changes to "Disbursed Current".
It depends on your bank when they post in your account (same day, next day, time).
If your banking info didn't verify, the transaction will fail to go through, and the status will revert.
If you are not funded within 3-4 banking days, there is likely a problem - check your info in your portal, call the SBA, and then email Cue if needed.
If you click on your loan# in the list, it opens up a page with details about your loan.
There's even a box at the bottom to check if you want electronic account statements only, but if you check that, a warning pops up about "all attached to this loan will be affected by this change", so we recommend not selecting that option just yet.
PRE POST EDIT - Damn I'm sorry this is so long. TLDR - got hoovered up for an entire day and fell for it again. Hello random internet friends. I'm all over the place and it's hard to write this because I know what a lot of you will be thinking and telling me to do. I'm not sure even why I'm writing this, I guess I just need to get my thoughts out there and rant / vent etc. Last Tuesday my wife (after we'd had a fight over chocolate spread, yep! fricken chocolate spread) came to me and said that she didn't want to be in this anymore. I grey rocked my arse off and simply replied "Yep! I agree" Apart from a talk on Wednesday night we remained apart from each other as much as we could (As I have three kids and literally no funds and no family or friends nearby I couldn't leave the house). Over the next few days I was an emotional rollercoaster I just kept up with the grey rock but found that during the days I was feeling really down but whenever my wife was out or in the evenings when she was in bed and I was still up I was feeling quite positive. Fast forward to yesterday and the big hoover started. It started in the morning. I said that I was going out to the shops and she said that she needed to speak to me first. She came in quite strong. "I don't know what is going on with you but I need to have full access to understand what your problem is so I can help". "Full Access to What?" "Your bank accounts, Your debts, your emails" "I'm not giving those to you" "I think there is something going on with you and I want to help so I need to see them, I think you have a gambling problem or something" I'd just like to add at this point that I do not gamble, sure I've been the casino a couple of times and the horse races but more for the day out to have fun than to do any serious gambling, (we're talking perhaps 10 occasions over the last 15 years or so) Normally I've come out even or lost like £40 or something. One time, about three years ago I placed a relatively large bet and lost and she keeps bringing this up saying that I have a problem with gambling but since then I haven't gambled at all. I eventually caved in under the pressure (I don't have anything to hide on my statements) and said I would print them off for her later. She then started saying that I have addiction problems and I had to get rid of my computer because I'm addicted to it. I enjoy playing some strategy games but I only do this for a hour or two in the evening after everyone has gone to bed. Throughout all this the grey rock got dropped and I started engaging with her and of course I was trying to explain that the real reason I wasn't her meltingmandible and more was because of the way she has treated me over the years we have been together. She said that she wasn't going to do the "abused little husband thing again" The conversation went on and I somehow managed to get her to agree that she wouldn't call me names anymore, she wouldn't put me down, she would berate me over the amount of money that I make. I left for the shops and when I got back she came up to me and put her arm around me and was really nice to me. Ok I thought, we then got inside and she said "You know, we've spoken about what you need to make this relationship, but we didn't speak about what I need" Ahhhh, crap! here we go. turns out she wants the following She wants me to pay her 65% of my salary to contribute towards all the house bills, this will leave me with enough money for petrol and to cover my mobile phone bill and a couple of other things, you have to bear in mind that she an income of approximately 15 times my annual income. She wants me to get rid of my computer because she doesn't like me playing computer games, carrying out family history research, or video editing which I all do as a hobby. She wants me to help out around the house more, (I'm up 3 hours before her every day getting the kids up and ready for school, doing snack boxes, walking the dog. I go to bed 3 or 4hours after her and I'll generally clear up the kitchen and tidy away things around the house. I'll leave work early to pick up the kids and have to work over time to make up for it. I'll cook about 50% of the time and also bathe the kids when I get in from work. She wants access to bank account so she can keep an eye on it. She wants me to make an effort to lose weight as she says I'm obese (I'm overweight but I'm also 6ft 2in so I can carry it off a bit. I also eat when I'm feeling down) By the end of all of this I was so emotionally exhausted that I just stupidly agreed to it all. When she went to bed, I put the kids to bed and went into her bedroom and she started bursting into tears about how this relationship has degraded, I said that I was willing to take ownership of the things that have gone wrong but she also needed to understand that she has caused our relationship to suffer as well. We talked for almost an hour and the best I got out of her was "yes I fly off the handle when I shouldn't sometimes but it's only because of what you have been doing" throughout all of the day I could see what was happening but Seeing the woman that I love crying her eyes out in front of me and feeling that I could make her feel better was just too much for me and I finally buckled. So to close. I now have to
hand over 65% of my paycheck
not use the computer as much for things that I enjoy, family research, video editing, and strategy games
do more work around the house
see a therapist about my addiction problems to food, computers and gambling (food, I agree I have a problem with when I'm feeling down but I don't gamble and have never had a problem with gambling, the computer, I only use for recreational in the evening when everyone else is in bed and I'm by myself)
In return she is going to:
try and stop calling me names
not put me down so much
not roll her eyes at me when a household bill comes in and I ask for her credit card to pay it.
What the f*** is wrong with me? I thought that there was a little light at the end of this long 15 year tunnel but I just got sucked back in. Even though I know what has happened and what was happening my heart was breaking seeing her crying.
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Casino Sieger Review
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Casino Sieger Game Selection
Casino, Live Dealer, Jackpots
Casino Sieger features over one thousand popular games and covers all genres, themes and types of gaming. The platform provides a great overview of all games available; all you have to do is glance over the main menu, and then click the category you are interested in. And if you are on a hunt after a specific title, simply use the search bar - it works impeccably, and the results will be there immediately for you to click and play. This site includes live casino games, classic table games, slots, virtual sports, as well as sportsbooks, bingo, scratchcards and many other games that are not so common at online casinos.
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As already mentioned, all players who want to enjoy their winnings to the fullest must verify their account. The entire process is quite simple and takes just a little bit of effort. You have to prove your:
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Feel free to contact their customer support via live chat. Agents respond quickly, and even though you might have to wait a minute or two to get your answer, the service is simply superb so we can’t complain. Before starting the chat, you will have to provide your name and email, as well as type the question you have for the support. Alternatively, you can contact them via email. These are the main categories in the Casino Sieger FAQ:
In addition to FAQ, there are also game guides that provide basic rules on how to play certain gaming titles.
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